FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Accurately predicting patients' risk for specific medical outcomes is paramount for effective healthcare management and personalized medicine. While a substantial body of literature addresses the prediction of diverse medical conditions, existing models predominantly focus on singular outcomes, limiting their scope to one disease at a time. However, clinical reality often entails patients concurrently facing multiple health risks across various medical domains. In response to this gap, our study proposes a novel multi-risk framework adept at simultaneous risk prediction for multiple clinical outcomes, including diabetes, mortality, and hypertension. Leveraging a concise set of features extracted from patients' cardiorespiratory fitness data, our framework minimizes computational complexity while maximizing predictive accuracy. Moreover, we integrate a state-of-the-art instance-based interpretability technique into our framework, providing users with comprehensive explanations for each prediction. These explanations afford medical practitioners invaluable insights into the primary health factors influencing individual predictions, fostering greater trust and utility in the underlying prediction models. Our approach thus stands to significantly enhance healthcare decision-making processes, facilitating more targeted interventions and improving patient outcomes in clinical practice. Our prediction framework utilizes an automated machine learning framework, Auto-Weka, to optimize machine learning models and hyper-parameter configurations for the simultaneous prediction of three medical outcomes: diabetes, mortality, and hypertension. Additionally, we employ a local interpretability technique to elucidate predictions generated by our framework. These explanations manifest visually, highlighting key attributes contributing to each instance's prediction for enhanced interpretability. Using automated machine learning techniques, the models simultaneously predict hypertension, mortality, and diabetes risks, utilizing only nine patient features. They achieved an average AUC of 0.90 ± 0.001 on the hypertension dataset, 0.90 ± 0.002 on the mortality dataset, and 0.89 ± 0.001 on the diabetes dataset through tenfold cross-validation. Additionally, the models demonstrated strong performance with an average AUC of 0.89 ± 0.001 on the hypertension dataset, 0.90 ± 0.001 on the mortality dataset, and 0.89 ± 0.001 on the diabetes dataset using bootstrap evaluation with 1000 resamples.

Improved cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with lower incident ischemic stroke risk: Henry Ford FIT project.

BACKGROUND: Change in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) modulates vascular disease risk; however, it's unclear if this adds further prognostic information, particularly for ischemic stroke. The objective of this analysis is to describe the association between the change in CRF over time and subsequent incident ischemic stroke. METHODS: This is a retrospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study of 9,646 patients (age=55±11 years; 41% women; 25% black) who completed 2 clinically indicated exercise tests (> 12 months apart) and were free of any stroke at the time of test 2. CRF was expressed as metabolic-equivalents-of-task (METs). Incident ischemic stroke was identified using ICD codes. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was determined for risk of ischemic stroke associated with change in CRF. RESULTS: Mean time between tests was 3.7 years (IQR, 2.2, 6.0). During a median of 5.0 years (IQR, 2.7, 7.6 y) of follow-up, there were 873 (9.1%) ischemic stroke events. Each 1 MET increase between tests was associated with a 9% lower ischemic stroke risk (aHR 0.91 [0.88-0.94]; n = 9.646). There was an interaction effect by baseline CRF category, but not for sex or race. A sensitivity analysis which removed those who experienced an incident diagnosis known to be associated with an increased risk of ischemic vascular disease, validated our primary findings (aHR 0.91 [0.88, 0.95]; n= 6,943). CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in CRF over time is independently and inversely associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. Encouragement of regular exercise focused on improving CRF may reduce ischemic stroke risk.

Supervised Exercise Therapy for Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease: A REVIEW OF CURRENT EXPERIENCE AND PRACTICE-BASED RECOMMENDATIONS.

PURPOSE: This review encompasses several practical components of supervised exercise therapy (SET) for patients with claudication including referral, exercise training, and billing issues. Real-life SET session examples are also provided. SET was approved for reimbursement by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) in 2017, and there is continual growth of programs offering SET and in participation. The purpose of this review is to provide useful information for the clinical exercise professionals working with these patients. REVIEW METHODS: The 2016 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Management of Patients With Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) provided a class I (highest level) recommendation for the use of SET in those with symptomatic PAD. Since there has been much growth in the literature about the utility of SET, the literature was reviewed (PubMed) to provide information for this article. Topics reviewed include the benefits of exercise training, exercise prescription, billing, referral and participation, and best practices. SUMMARY: SET should be offered to all patients with symptomatic PAD who are not at risk of acute limb ischemia. For optimal results, SET should be implemented several times per week and in a progressive process to increase exercise intensity as tolerated. For best results, programs should recommend patients supplement SET with home exercise. Considerations for utilizing reimbursed sessions should also be discussed because patients have a maximum of 72 sessions/lifetime. Referral practices need refinement, and participation rates remain extremely low and may be influenced by demographics. Research on best practices and home or hybrid training must continue to address issues related to common enrollment and participation barriers. CONDENSED ABSTRACT: Supervised exercise training (SET) for symptomatic peripheral artery disease is a class IA recommendation and reimbursable by most insurances. Improvements in walking performance can be dramatic. However, referral and participation in SET remain very low and thus SET is vastly underutilized.

Relation of Exercise Capacity to Incident Heart Failure Among Men and Women With Coronary Heart Disease (from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing [FIT] Project).

Exercise capacity (EC) is inversely related to the risk of cardiovascular disease and incident heart failure (HF) in healthy subjects. However, there are no present studies that exclusively evaluate EC and the risk of incident HF in patients with known coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to determine the relation between EC and incident HF in patients with an established clinical diagnosis of CHD. We retrospectively identified 8,387 patients (age 61 ± 12 years; 30% women; 33% non-White) with a history of myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary revascularization procedure and no history of HF at the time of a clinically indicated exercise stress test completed between 1991 and 2009. EC was quantified in metabolic equivalents of task (METs) estimated from treadmill testing. Incident HF was identified through June 2010 from administrative databases based on ≥3 encounters with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision 428.x. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk of incident HF associated with METs. Covariates included age; gender; race; hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and MI; medications for CHD and lung diseases; and clinical indication for treadmill testing. During a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range 4.7 to 12.4 years) after the exercise test, 23% of the cohort experienced a new HF diagnosis. Lower EC categories were associated with higher HF incidence compared with METs ≥12, with nearly fourfold greater adjusted risk among patients with METs <6. Per unit increase in METs of EC was associated with a 12% lower adjusted risk for HF. There was no significant interaction based on race (p = 0.06), gender (p = 0.88), age ≤61 years (p = 0.60), history of MI (p = 0.31), or diabetes (p = 0.38). This study reveals that among men and women with CHD and no history of HF, EC is independently and inversely related to the risk of future HF.

Relation of a Maximal Exercise Test to Change in Exercise Tolerance During Cardiac Rehabilitation.

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that an individualized exercise training target heart rate (HR) based on a maximal graded exercise test (GXT) is associated with greater improvements in exercise tolerance during cardiac rehabilitation (CR) compared with no GXT. In this retrospective study, we identified patients who completed 9 to 36 visits of CR between 2001 and 2016, with a length of stay ≤18 weeks and a visit frequency of 1 to 3 days per week. Patients were grouped based on whether their exercise was guided by a target HR determined from a GXT. To assess the relation between GXT and change in exercise training metabolic equivalents of task (METs), we used generalized linear models adjusted for age, gender, race, referral reason, CR visits, CR frequency, METs at start, CR location, and year of participation. Out of 4,455 patients (37% female, 48% White, median age = 62 years), 53% were prescribed a target HR based on a GXT. Compared with no GXT, a GXT was associated with a significantly greater increase in covariate-adjusted METs during CR and percentage change from start (+0.44 METs [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38 to 0.51] and +17% [95% CI 14% to 19%], respectively). In a sensitivity analysis limited to patients with 24 to 36 visits at ≥2 days per week (n = 1,319), a GXT was associated with a significantly greater increase in covariate-adjusted exercise training METs (+0.51 [95% CI 0.36 to 0.66]; +19% [95% CI 13% to 24%]). In conclusion, to maximize the potential increase in exercise capacity during CR, patients should undergo a GXT to determine an individualized exercise training target HR.

Decision Aids for Determining Facility Versus Non-Facility-Based Exercise in Those with Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This paper sought to provide rationale for determining when a patient with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD) might be referred for home-based versus facility-based exercise therapy. RECENT FINDINGS: Multiple randomized controlled studies have embedded supervised, structured exercise therapy as a class IA recommended therapy for those with symptomatic PAD. More recently, there is interest in non-facility-based exercise training as an alternative. The current literature is mixed on the effectiveness of non-facility-based training and is influenced by the amount of contact with clinical staff providing some supervision (e.g., occasional facility-based exercise or coaching phone calls), and the intensity (e.g., performed intermittently by inducing pain or continually and not inducing pain) and frequency (e.g., 12-week common supervised exercise program or those longer than 24 weeks) of exercise. Certainly, the data suggests non-facility-based exercise, while possibly improving walking performance, is inferior to facility-based supervised exercise training. Comprehensive data is lacking on utilization of supervised exercise therapy in those with symptomatic PAD, but is likely <2% of those eligible who participate. This suggests a possible important role for alternatives including non-facility-based (e.g., home, fitness center). Exercise training in the supervised, facility-based setting appears to be greatly underutilized. Non-facility-based exercise may help to overcome some of the most common barriers to participating in facility-based exercise including those related to motivation, transportation, and proximity. However, facility-based training is considered the gold standard so decisions about allowing a patient to exercise train at home must take into account issues including disease severity, patient motivation and available exercise resources, mobility and balance, cognitive function, and other medical concerns (e.g., symptomatic coronary artery disease or heart failure).

Prognostic Value of Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The FIT (Henry Ford Exercise Testing) Project.

PURPOSE: We conducted this study to investigate the association of cardiorespiratory fitness and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease. METHODS: We studied a retrospective cohort of patients from the Henry Ford Health System who underwent clinically indicated exercise stress testing with baseline cardiorespiratory fitness and estimated glomerular filtration rate measurement. Cardiorespiratory fitness was expressed as metabolic equivalents of task, and kidney function was categorized into stages according to estimated glomerular filtration rate. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between metabolic equivalents of task and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-5. Discrimination of mortality was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, while reclassification was evaluated using net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: Among 50,121 participants, the mean age was 55 ± 12.6 years; 47.5% were women, 64.5% were white, and 6877 (13.7%) participants had chronic kidney disease stage 3-5. Over a median follow-up of 6.7 years, 6308 participants died (12.6%). Each 1-unit higher metabolic equivalents of task was associated with a significant 15% reduction in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.87). Metabolic equivalents of task improved discriminatory ability of mortality prediction when added to traditional risk factors and estimated glomerular filtration rate (area under the curve 0.7996; 95% CI, 0.789-0.810 vs 0.759; 95% CI, 0.748-0.770, respectively; P < .001). The addition of metabolic equivalents of task to traditional risk factors resulted in significant reclassification (6% for events, 5% for non-events: NRI = 0.13, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiorespiratory fitness improves mortality risk prediction among patients with chronic kidney disease. Cardiorespiratory fitness provides incremental prognostic information when added to traditional risk factors and may help guide treatment options among patients with renal dysfunction.

Rethinking Rehabilitation: A REVIEW OF PATIENT POPULATIONS WHO CAN BENEFIT FROM CARDIAC REHABILITATION.

Although cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is safe and highly effective for individuals with various cardiovascular health conditions, to date there are only seven diagnoses or procedures identified by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services that qualify for referral. When considering the growing number of individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD), or other health conditions that increase the risk for CVD, it is important to determine the extent for which CR could benefit these populations. Furthermore, there are some patients who may currently be eligible for CR (spontaneous coronary artery dissection, left ventricular assistant device) but make up a relatively small proportion of the populations that are regularly attending and participating. Thus, these patient populations and special considerations for exercise might be less familiar to professionals who are supervising their programs. The purpose of this review is to summarize the current literature surrounding exercise testing and programming among four specific patient populations that either do not currently qualify for (chronic and end-stage renal disease, breast cancer survivor) or who are eligible but less commonly seen in CR (sudden coronary artery dissection, left ventricular assist device). While current evidence suggests that individuals with these health conditions can safely participate in and may benefit from supervised exercise programming, there is an immediate need for high-quality, multisite clinical trials to develop more specific exercise recommendations and support the inclusion of these populations in future CR programs.

Fitness and Mortality Among Persons 70 Years and Older Across the Spectrum of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Burden: The FIT Project.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether fitness could improve mortality risk stratification among older adults compared with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. METHODS: We examined 6509 patients 70 years of age and older without CVD from the Henry Ford ExercIse Testing Project (FIT Project) cohort. Patients performed a physician-referred treadmill stress test between 1991 and 2009. Traditional categorical CVD risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and smoking) were summed from 0 to 3 or more. Fitness was grouped as low, moderate, and high (<6, 6 to 9.9, and ≥10 metabolic equivalents of task). All-cause mortality was ascertained through US Social Security Death Master files. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates, multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards, and Kaplan-Meier survival models. RESULTS: Patients had a mean age of 75±4 years, and 3385 (52%) were women; during a mean follow-up of 9.4 years, there were 2526 deaths. A higher fitness level (P<.001), not lower CVD risk factor burden (P=.31), was associated with longer survival. The age-adjusted mortality rate per 1000 person-years was 56.7 for patients with low fitness and 0 risk factors compared with 24.9 for high fitness and 3 or more risk factors. Among patients with 3 or more risk factors, the adjusted mortality hazard was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61 to 0.76) for moderate and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.44 to 0.60) for high fitness compared with the least fit. CONCLUSION: Among persons aged 70 years and older, there was no significant difference in survival of patients with 0 vs 3 or more risk factors, but a higher fitness level identified older persons with good long-term survival regardless of CVD risk factor burden.

Fitness and prostate cancer screening, incidence, and mortality: Results from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project.

BACKGROUND: The relation between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and prostate cancer is not well established. The objective of this study was to determine whether CRF is associated with prostate cancer screening, incidence, or mortality. METHODS: The Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project is a retrospective cohort study of men aged 40 to 70 years without cancer who underwent physician-referred exercise stress testing from 1995 to 2009. CRF was quantified in metabolic equivalents of task (METs) (<6 [reference], 6-9, 10-11, and ≥12 METs), estimated from the peak workload achieved during a symptom-limited, maximal exercise stress test. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, incident prostate cancer, and all-cause mortality were analyzed with multivariable adjusted Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: In total, 22,827 men were included, of whom 739 developed prostate cancer, with a median follow-up of 7.5 years. Men who had high fitness (≥12 METs) had an 28% higher risk of PSA screening (95% CI, 1.2-1.3) compared with those who had low fitness (<6 METs. After adjusting for PSA screening, fitness was associated with higher prostate cancer incidence (men aged <55 years, P = .02; men aged >55 years, P ≤ .01), but not with advanced prostate cancer. Among the men who were diagnosed with prostate cancer, high fitness was associated with a 60% lower risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI, 0.2-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Although men with high fitness are more likely to undergo PSA screening, this does not fully account for the increased incidence of prostate cancer seen among these individuals. However, men with high fitness have a lower risk of death after a prostate cancer diagnosis, suggesting that the cancers identified may be low-risk with little impact on long-term outcomes.

Inverse Relationship of Maximal Exercise Capacity to Hospitalization Secondary to Coronavirus Disease 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between maximal exercise capacity measured before severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and hospitalization due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We identified patients (≥18 years) who completed a clinically indicated exercise stress test between January 1, 2016, and February 29, 2020, and had a test for SARS-CoV-2 (ie, real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction test) between February 29, 2020, and May 30, 2020. Maximal exercise capacity was quantified in metabolic equivalents of task (METs). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the likelihood that hospitalization secondary to COVID-19 is related to peak METs, with adjustment for 13 covariates previously identified as associated with higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19. RESULTS: We identified 246 patients (age, 59±12 years; 42% male; 75% black race) who had an exercise test and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Among these, 89 (36%) were hospitalized. Peak METs were significantly lower (P<.001) among patients who were hospitalized (6.7±2.8) compared with those not hospitalized (8.0±2.4). Peak METs were inversely associated with the likelihood of hospitalization in unadjusted (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92) and adjusted models (odds ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99). CONCLUSION: Maximal exercise capacity is independently and inversely associated with the likelihood of hospitalization due to COVID-19. These data further support the important relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness and health outcomes. Future studies are needed to determine whether improving maximal exercise capacity is associated with lower risk of complications due to viral infections, such as COVID-19.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Incident Stroke Types: The FIT (Henry Ford ExercIse Testing) Project.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and incident stroke types. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied a retrospective cohort of patients referred for treadmill stress testing in the Henry Ford Health System (Henry Ford ExercIse Testing Project) without history of stroke. CRF was expressed by metabolic equivalents of task (METs). Using appropriate International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes, incident stroke was ascertained through linkage with administrative claims files and classified as ischemic, hemorrhagic, and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models examined the association between CRF and incident stroke. RESULTS: Among 67,550 patients, mean ± SD age was 54±13 years, 46% (n=31,089) were women, and 64% (n=43,274) were white. After a median follow-up of 5.4 (interquartile range 2.7-8.5) years, a total of 7512 incident strokes occurred (6320 ischemic, 2481 hemorrhagic, and 275 SAH). Overall, there was a graded lower incidence of stroke with higher MET categories. Patients with METs of 12 or more had lower risk of overall stroke [0.42 (95% CI, 0.36-0.49)], ischemic stroke [0.69 (95% CI, 0.58-0.82)], and hemorrhagic stroke [0.71 (95% CI, 0.52-0.95)]. CONCLUSION: In a large ethnically diverse cohort of patients referred for treadmill stress testing, CRF is inversely associated with risk for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.

Aortic Aneurysm: DIAGNOSIS, MANAGEMENT, EXERCISE TESTING, AND TRAINING.

BACKGROUND: Some patients who participate in cardiac rehabilitation have aortic abnormalities, including abdominal and thoracic aneurysm (AAA and TAA, respectively). There is scant guidance on implementing exercise training in these individuals. This article reviews the epidemiology, diagnostic process, medical issues, and the available exercise training literature, and provides recommendations for performing regular exercise. CLINICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Patients with aortic abnormalities are at risk for enlargement, aneurysm development, dissection, and rupture. During exercise, individuals with large aneurysms may be at greater risk of an adverse event. The available literature suggests little increased risk of complications when training at low and moderate intensities in those with an AAA, and exercise may be protective for aneurysm expansion. There is little exercise data for TAA, but the available literature suggests training at lower intensities and avoidance of excessive increases of blood pressure. EXERCISE TESTING AND TRAINING: When exercise testing and training are performed, the intensity should be controlled to avoid complications. It is prudent to keep systolic blood pressure <180 mm Hg in most patients and <160 mm Hg in those at greater risk of dissection or rupture (eg, women and larger sized aneurysm) during aerobic training. During resistance training, patients should avoid sudden excessive blood pressure increases (ie, avoid the Valsalva maneuver), and keep intensity below 40-50% of the 1-repetition maximum. Existing data suggest these patients may improve functional capacity and reduce the rate of aneurysm expansion. SUMMARY: Most patients with AAA can safely perform exercise training when conservative guidelines are followed. Additional research is needed to fully determine whether exercise is protective against aneurysm expansion, and the effects of exercise in those who have had surgical repair. More research is necessary to provide specific recommendations for those with a TAA.

Association of BMI, Fitness, and Mortality in Patients With Diabetes: Evaluating the Obesity Paradox in the Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (FIT Project) Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of fitness on the association between BMI and mortality among patients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We identified 8,528 patients with diabetes (self-report, medication use, or electronic medical record diagnosis) from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (FIT Project). Patients with a BMI <18.5 kg/m2 or cancer were excluded. Fitness was measured as the METs achieved during a physician-referred treadmill stress test and categorized as low (<6), moderate (6-9.9), or high (≥10). Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were calculated using standard BMI (kilograms per meter squared) cutoffs of normal (18.5-24.9), overweight (25-29.9), and obese (≥30). Adjusted splines centered at 22.5 kg/m2 were used to examine BMI as a continuous variable. RESULTS: Patients had a mean age of 58 ± 11 years (49% women) with 1,319 deaths over a mean follow-up of 10.0 ± 4.1 years. Overall, obese patients had a 30% lower mortality hazard (P < 0.001) compared with normal-weight patients. In adjusted spline modeling, higher BMI as a continuous variable was predominantly associated with a lower mortality risk in the lowest fitness group and among patients with moderate fitness and BMI ≥30 kg/m2. Compared with the lowest fitness group, patients with higher fitness had an ∼50% (6-9.9 METs) and 70% (≥10 METs) lower mortality hazard regardless of BMI (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with diabetes, the obesity paradox was less pronounced for patients with the highest fitness level, and these patients also had the lowest risk of mortality.

Implementation of Supervised Exercise Therapy for Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease: A Science Advisory From the American Heart Association.

Patients with lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) have greater functional impairment, faster functional decline, increased rates of mobility loss, and poorer quality of life than people without PAD. Supervised exercise therapy (SET) improves walking ability, overall functional status, and health-related quality of life in patients with symptomatic PAD. In 2017, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released a National Coverage Determination (CAG-00449N) for SET programs for patients with symptomatic PAD. This advisory provides a practical guide for delivering SET programs to patients with PAD according to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria. It summarizes the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services process and requirements for referral and coverage of SET and provides guidance on how to implement SET for patients with PAD, including the SET protocol, options for outcome measurement, and transition to home-based exercise. This advisory is based on the guidelines established by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for Medicare beneficiaries in the United States and is intended to assist clinicians and administrators who are implementing SET programs for patients with PAD.

The Interplay of the Global Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scoring and Cardiorespiratory Fitness for the Prediction of All-Cause Mortality and Myocardial Infarction: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing Project (The FIT Project).

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is inversely associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. It is unclear whether the prognostic value of CRF differs by baseline estimated ASCVD risk. We studied a retrospective cohort of patients without known heart failure or myocardial infarction (MI) who underwent treadmill stress testing. CRF was measured by metabolic equivalents of task (METs) and ASCVD risk was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equations. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions analyses examined the association between METs and incident all-cause mortality and MI outcomes stratified by baseline ASCVD risk. The C-index evaluated risk discrimination while net reclassification improvement evaluated reclassification with CRF added to the ASCVD risk score. Our study population consisted of 57,999 patients of mean age 53 (13) years, 49% women, 64% white, 29% black. Over a median follow-up 11 years (interquartile range 8 to 14 years) there were 6,670 (11%) deaths, while there were 1,757 (3.0%) MIs over a median follow-up of 6 years (interquartile range 3 to 8 years). Among patients with ASCVD risk ≥20%, those with METs ≥12 had a 77% lower risk of all-cause mortality (Hazard ratio 0.23 95% confidence interval = 0.20, 0.27) and 67% lower risk of MI (Hazard ratio 0.33 95% confidence interval = 0.24, 0.46) compared to METs <6. Similar results were obtained for those with ASCVD risk <5%. Addition of METs to ASCVD risk score improved the C-statistic from 0.778 to 0.798 for all-cause mortality and 0.726 to 0.733 for MI (both p <0.001). Addition of METs to ASCVD risk score significantly reclassified risk of all-cause mortality (p <0.001) but not MI (p = 0.052). In conclusion, CRF is inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality and MI at all levels of ASCVD risk, and provides incremental risk discrimination and reclassification beyond the ASCVD risk score.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and incident lung and colorectal cancer in men and women: Results from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) cohort.

BACKGROUND: To the authors' knowledge, the relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and lung and colorectal cancer outcomes is not well established. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed of 49,143 consecutive patients who underwent clinician-referred exercise stress testing from 1991 through 2009. The patients ranged in age from 40 to 70 years, were without cancer, and were treated within the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit, Michigan. CRF, measured in metabolic equivalents of task (METs), was categorized as <6 (reference), 6 to 9, 10 to 11, and ≥12. Incident cancer was obtained through linkage to the cancer registry and all-cause mortality from the National Death Index. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 54 ± 8 years. Approximately 46% were female, 64% were white, 29% were black, and 1% were Hispanic. The median follow-up was 7.7 years. Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for age, race, sex, body mass index, smoking history, and diabetes, found that those in the highest fitness category (METs ≥12) had a 77% decreased risk of lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.23; 95% CI, 0.14-0.36) and a 61% decreased risk of incident colorectal cancer (HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.23-0.66; with additional adjustment for aspirin and statin use). Among those diagnosed with lung and colorectal cancer, those with high fitness had a decreased risk of subsequent death of 44% and 89%, respectively (HR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.32-1.00] and HR, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.03-0.37], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In what to the authors' knowledge is the largest study performed to date, higher CRF was associated with a lower risk of incident lung and colorectal cancer in men and women and a lower risk of all-cause mortality among those diagnosed with lung or colorectal cancer.

5-2-1-0 Lifestyle risk factors predict obesity in Millennials.

The Making Effective Nutritional Choices Generation Y (MENU GenY) study is a web-based intervention trial aimed at improving food choices in those aged 21-30 years. We report baseline levels of the 5-2-1-0 healthy lifestyle patterns to predict a body mass index (BMI) ≥30 vs <30 kg m-2 . Overall, 1674 young adults (69% female) from two large health systems enroled and completed an online survey asking questions about lifestyle habits. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was utilized to predict a BMI ≥30 while controlling for known predictors of obesity. Consuming >3 daily servings of fruits/vegetables (odds ratio, OR = 0.90, 95% confidence interval, CI = 0.81, 0.99), and reporting >2.5 hours/week of vigorous physical activity (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.89-0.96, P < 0.001) was associated with a BMI <30. Conversely, time sitting (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.11) and consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.15) were related to a BMI ≥30. In this cohort of 20-30-year-olds, we observed a consistent relationship between obesity and the 5-2-1-0 healthy lifestyle patterns previously reported among children and adolescents.